People extract positive utility from behaviors consistent with their self-images, and negative utility if they do things that contradicts their belief.
So we see people with good self-image will generally outperform those without.
Sunday, March 25, 2012
Rational Guilt
People who think a lot of how other people view them sometimes avoid making decision because that decision may incur guilt. Even they know the right decision to make, that procrastinate making it. That's the power of guilt.
Making decision right away beget expected guilt high enough that the cost at the present moment outweighs current benefit of making decision. But in the long run, the total benefit overwhelms the cost of guilt and procrastination. So the 'super ego' who maximizes the long run payoff would always make decision right away. The negative externality inherent in the principle-agent problem preclude making immediate decision.
It is the same case if the person may experience regret.
Monday, March 19, 2012
Rational stubbornness
Being stubborn and insistent on one's correctness might boost one's confidence. Sometimes verbal descriptions (or feelings) of one's experiences overwrote one's memories of experiences themselves, and one ended up remembering not what they had experienced but what they had said (felt) about what they experienced.
Monday, March 5, 2012
Herd behavior
There are a couple of reasons why herd behavior happens. The first is the social pressure of conformity. You probably know from experience that this can be a powerful force. This is because most people are very sociable and have a natural desire to be accepted by a group, rather than be branded as an outcast. Therefore, following the group is an ideal way of becoming a member.
The second reason is the common rationale that it's unlikely that such a large group could be wrong. After all, even if you are convinced that a particular idea or course or action is irrational or incorrect, you might still follow the herd, believing they know something that you don't. This is especially prevalent in situations in which an individual has very little experience.
http://www.investopedia.com/university/behavioral_finance/behavioral8.asp
Sunday, March 4, 2012
The Art of Scientific Investigation by W. I. B. Beveridge
The real and lasting pleasure in a discovery comes not so much from the accomplishment itself as from the possibility of using it as a stepping stone for fresh adventures.
Common sequence in an investigation:
a) The relevant literature is critically reviewed.
b) A thorough collection of field data or equivalent observational inquiry is conducted, and is supplemented if necessary by laboratory examination o specimens
c) Th information obtained is marshaled and correlated and the problem is defined and broken down into specific questions.
d) Intelligent guesses are made to answer he questions, as many hypotheses as possible being considered
e) Experiments are devised to test first the likeliest hypotheses bearing on the most crucial questions.
A crucial experiment is one which gives a result consistent with one hypothesis and inconsistent with another.
In the field of observation, chance favors only the prepared mind. -- Pasteur
On Chance
New knowledge very often has its origin in some quite unexpected observation or chance occurrence arising during an investigation. The importance of this factor in discovery should be fully appreciated and research workers ought deliberately to exploit it. Opportunities come more frequently to active bench workers and people who dabble in novel procedures. Interpreting the clue and realizing its possible significance requires knowledge without fixed ideas, imagination, scientific taste, and a habit of contemplating all unexplained observations.
The imaginative vision and faith in the ultimate success are indispensable, The pure rationalist has not place here. -- Max Planck
Generalizations may be regarded as patterns in ideas.
In research, taste plays an important part in choosing profitable subjects for investigation, in recognizing promising clues, in intuition, in deciding on a course of action where there are few facts with which to reason, in discarding hypotheses that require too any modifications an in forming an opinion on new discoveries before the evidence is decisive.
As with other tastes, taste in science will only be found in people with a genuine love of science. Our taste derives from the summation of all that we have learnt from others, experienced and thought.
Most people do not realize how often opinions that are supposed to be based on reason are in fact but rationalizations of prejudice or subjective motives.There is a very considerable part of scientific thinking where there is not enough sound knowledge to allow of effective reasoning and here the judgment will inevitably be largely influenced by taste.
Often in research our thoughts and actions have to be guided by personal judgment based on scientific taste.
The origin of discoveries is beyond the reach of reason.
Effective observation involves noticing something and giving it significance by relating it to something else noticed or already known; thus it contains both a element of sense-perception and a mental element.
The mental resistance to new ideas is partly due to the fact that they have to displace established ideas. New facts are not usually accepted unless they can be correlated with the existing body of knowledge.
Persecution of great discoverers was due partly to mental resistance to new ideas and partly to the disturbance caused to the entrenched authority and vested interests, intellectual and material.
Work with some clear object in view but nevertheless keep alert for and seize any unexpected opportunities.
Common sequence in an investigation:
a) The relevant literature is critically reviewed.
b) A thorough collection of field data or equivalent observational inquiry is conducted, and is supplemented if necessary by laboratory examination o specimens
c) Th information obtained is marshaled and correlated and the problem is defined and broken down into specific questions.
d) Intelligent guesses are made to answer he questions, as many hypotheses as possible being considered
e) Experiments are devised to test first the likeliest hypotheses bearing on the most crucial questions.
A crucial experiment is one which gives a result consistent with one hypothesis and inconsistent with another.
In the field of observation, chance favors only the prepared mind. -- Pasteur
On Chance
New knowledge very often has its origin in some quite unexpected observation or chance occurrence arising during an investigation. The importance of this factor in discovery should be fully appreciated and research workers ought deliberately to exploit it. Opportunities come more frequently to active bench workers and people who dabble in novel procedures. Interpreting the clue and realizing its possible significance requires knowledge without fixed ideas, imagination, scientific taste, and a habit of contemplating all unexplained observations.
The imaginative vision and faith in the ultimate success are indispensable, The pure rationalist has not place here. -- Max Planck
Generalizations may be regarded as patterns in ideas.
In research, taste plays an important part in choosing profitable subjects for investigation, in recognizing promising clues, in intuition, in deciding on a course of action where there are few facts with which to reason, in discarding hypotheses that require too any modifications an in forming an opinion on new discoveries before the evidence is decisive.
As with other tastes, taste in science will only be found in people with a genuine love of science. Our taste derives from the summation of all that we have learnt from others, experienced and thought.
Most people do not realize how often opinions that are supposed to be based on reason are in fact but rationalizations of prejudice or subjective motives.There is a very considerable part of scientific thinking where there is not enough sound knowledge to allow of effective reasoning and here the judgment will inevitably be largely influenced by taste.
Often in research our thoughts and actions have to be guided by personal judgment based on scientific taste.
The origin of discoveries is beyond the reach of reason.
Effective observation involves noticing something and giving it significance by relating it to something else noticed or already known; thus it contains both a element of sense-perception and a mental element.
The mental resistance to new ideas is partly due to the fact that they have to displace established ideas. New facts are not usually accepted unless they can be correlated with the existing body of knowledge.
Persecution of great discoverers was due partly to mental resistance to new ideas and partly to the disturbance caused to the entrenched authority and vested interests, intellectual and material.
Work with some clear object in view but nevertheless keep alert for and seize any unexpected opportunities.
Sunday, February 19, 2012
Reciprocal Liking
We like people who like us. When retrospecting, partners recall reciprocal liking and attraction.
We like people who are not uniformly positive, but who are perceived to be discriminating in who they like.
Similarly, we like people who start out more neutral toward us but then become increasingly positive.
Being liked is highly validating, opens the door to future interaction and the possibility of a relationship.
1. Proximity and Situations
2. Individuals' Characteristics
3. Dyadic Interactions
Physical Appearance, Personality, Similarity
We prefer others who are similar to us in beliefs, attitudes, and values. Because similarity:
Validates our own self-worth
Promotes shared activities
Increases confidence, self-esteem
Enhances communication
Increases chances that we will be like in return
What you really want is someone who is similar to you on the dimensions that matter to you. Once you find the similar dimensions, once you find someone who passes the first criterion, then you're willing to tolerate a lot of other dimensions.
Two persons have the capacity to talk to one another, to listen to one another, and to open up opportunities to get to know each other, to share the feelings with one another. And then we learn about the other person as an individual.
There is an exchange of information between two people who create some kind of proximity to one another, who sort of like the other person, or haven't found a reason to dislike the other person.
We like people who are not uniformly positive, but who are perceived to be discriminating in who they like.
Similarly, we like people who start out more neutral toward us but then become increasingly positive.
Being liked is highly validating, opens the door to future interaction and the possibility of a relationship.
1. Proximity and Situations
2. Individuals' Characteristics
3. Dyadic Interactions
Physical Appearance, Personality, Similarity
We prefer others who are similar to us in beliefs, attitudes, and values. Because similarity:
Validates our own self-worth
Promotes shared activities
Increases confidence, self-esteem
Enhances communication
Increases chances that we will be like in return
What you really want is someone who is similar to you on the dimensions that matter to you. Once you find the similar dimensions, once you find someone who passes the first criterion, then you're willing to tolerate a lot of other dimensions.
Two persons have the capacity to talk to one another, to listen to one another, and to open up opportunities to get to know each other, to share the feelings with one another. And then we learn about the other person as an individual.
There is an exchange of information between two people who create some kind of proximity to one another, who sort of like the other person, or haven't found a reason to dislike the other person.
Saturday, November 19, 2011
行为经济学的人生智慧--（心帐理论）Behavioral Economics and Its Implication -- Mental Accounting
一个故事：
甲去买烟，烟29元，但他没火柴，跟店员说：“顺便送一盒火柴吧。”店员没给。
乙去买烟，烟29元，他也没火柴，跟店员说：“便宜一毛吧。”最后，他用这一毛买一盒火柴。
这是最简单的心理边际效应。第一种：店主认为自己在一个商品上赚钱了，另外一个没赚钱。赚钱感觉指数为1。第二种：店主认为两个商品都赚钱了，赚钱指数为2。当然心理倾向第二种了。同样，这种心理还表现在买一送一的花招上，顾客认为有一样东西不用付钱，就赚了，其实都是心理边际效应在作怪。
人生启示：
变换一种方式往往能起到意想不到的效果! 通常很多事情换一种做法结果就不同了。人生道路上，改善心智模式和思维方式是很重要的。
行为经济学的解释：
心帐理论（Mental accounting）的四个结论是关于如何合并 (把多个经济活动整合成一个帐户)和单列（把一个或多个经济活动分解成多个帐户）心理帐户的。合并让人们在痛苦和损失时好受很多，单列使得人们在不增加真实经济好处的情况下更爽。
下面逐一介绍这四个结论。
第一结论：
如果有多个经济活动均涉及到收益/甜头/好处，尽可能的单列他们。
实验例子：老牛中了一个75块的足球彩票。
老朱中了个50的足球彩票，和一个25块的福利彩票。
他俩谁更爽？
大部分人都说老朱爽。
解释：斯诶勒往心帐理论里加入了交易效用，即每个经济活动本身带来的效用（可正可负）。单列后的涉及盈利的多个经济活动提供了多个正的交易效用，中两次奖当然比中一次爽了。还记得前景理论吧，前景理论也可解释结论一：根据S曲线，因为收益的效用是边际递减的，所以 U(A)+U(B) >； U(A+B)。
生活应用：没听说过谁把所有的圣诞礼物放一个盒子里的，大家是能包几个盒子就包几个。
商业应用：企业做广告，特别是面向家庭主妇的电视广告，那种让您限时拨打800电话，购物免费送东西的，一般都送您几件便宜货，而不是一件贵的东西。
第二结论：
如果有多个经济活动均涉及到开支/损失/霉头/灾难，尽可能的合并他们。
实验例子：老牛某日倒车撞了保险杆，修理费用1400块；那天还超速吃了罚单，120块；乱停车吃了罚单，40块。
老朱倒车撞了保险杆，修车费用1600块。
他俩谁更不爽？
这还用说吗？当然是老牛更不爽了。
解释：心帐理论还是用交易效用解释。单列后的经济活动提供了多个负的交易效用（倒多次霉当然比倒一次更不爽了）。前景理论也可解释。因为损失的效用也是边际递减的，所以 U(-A)+U(-B) <； U(-A-B)。
生活应用：出了很多倒霉事千万不要跟领导/老婆一一汇报，报个总数就行了。领导/老婆嘛，掌握大方向管理大问题，小小细节就不要麻烦她了。
商业应用：您车上的option（选件）就是这么卖给您的。有经验的汽车销售员常常报一个加了option的总价格，而不是单独强调某一个option的价格，让您觉得和base model一比，总开支没加多少。
推广开来，当企业销售昂贵的东西的时候，尽可能的创造选件（options）并把它们卖给顾客（当鞋店里有人向你推销鞋油的时候，您买的那双鞋多半在200块以上），嘟嘟嘟嘟，顾客在心帐理论第二结论的重火力下纷纷倒下。
第三结论：
如果有某个经济活动涉及到开支/损失，找个另外有收益的经济活动并且收益超过前述损失的，合并他们。
实验例子：老牛等老板发奖金，自己估计是300块。奖金到手，哦耶，果然是300块。但是一周后HR打电话说奖金发错了，要老牛退回50块。
老朱也等老板发奖金，自己估计也是300块。但是一周后，奖金到手只有250块。
他俩谁更不爽？
大多数人认为这次还是老牛更不爽（又是老牛！）
解释： 同第二结论。
生活应用：对领导/老婆报喜不报忧，那肯定是错误的（并有生命危险）；报喜也报忧，您能做得更好。在此提醒广大中老年男网友：好事喜事不要轻易报给领导。要攒起来等坏事出现的时候再一起合并上报。同时也提醒少数青少年朋友，坏事不要急于坦白给您的父母，等好事出现时一起合并再报。什么？找不到好事？你完了！
商业应用：从收入中扣除开支比直接让人承担开支更好受一些。这广泛应用于从月收入中扣除一部分来支付各种商业保险和分期付款（当然，分期付款还有另外的机制起作用，有时间细谈。）
第四结论：
如果有某个经济活动涉及到大笔开支/损失，同时有某个经济活动减少了一点该损失，把该经济活动单列出来。
第四结论又叫一线希望（silver lining）结论。
实验例子：老牛炒股某日损失了4900块。
老朱炒股某日损失5000块。但是回家的路上他拣到了100块钱。
他俩谁更不爽？
怎么还是老牛？（原因：心帐理论没有掌握好。）
解释： 参照前景理论的S曲线。
生活应用：要善于在逆境绝境完全损失中寻找闪光点，哪怕就是一点，也要给找出来。
商业应用：Mail-in Rebate。 买大件，先付钱，回头再给您退点钱，高兴吧？（Rebate的另外的机制是，最多一半的人真的去申请rebate）。
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