Sunday, July 15, 2012

Complex social system

We are all doing our local bit to steer our part of contraption, while blissfully ignorant of the complexities on which the system depends.

Mathematical analysis of economic system has provided us with inspiring insights. But the stark assumptions made in these models to render them analytically feasible determine that what we can get from these models are limited. These models usually count with three numbers: 1,2 and infinity. When there are an infinite number of agents,  they are either homogeneous or heterogeneous in a special way that their heterogeneity nicely counteracts each other. Moreover, let alone the unconvincing assumptions, these mathematical models that have analytical solutions only provide equilibria, assuming that the system will be in one of those equilibria or at least switching between them. How have the system evolved to the equilibrium, which one is more likely to happen, whether the emergence of equilibrium is inevitable or by accident, how stable the equilibrium is? We don't know.

We tend to be fascinated by the tools we are used to, and don't realize that sometimes it may make us more productive if we try to use a different tool to finish a project from a different perspective.

Diminishing marginal return of mathematical analysis.

Synergy of different approaches.

Humans are the only species that have cumulative culture.

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